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I got excited when I saw that this was an MIT
Lincoln Lab
case. The radar was the FPS-17 space-track
fixed-beam radar
(likely an upgrade for the XW-1 Diyarbakir, Turkey,
radar or the
equipment was being prepped for Shemya Island, Alaska,
operational in
1960). The radar-tracked speed for the first
track was a whopping
104,000 mph, which would be something of a record for
a UFO! But
then the MIT report states it was likely a meteor.
I tried every which way I could to poke holes in
the MIT
report. I recalculated and checked
numbers. But this is a
highly competent, well thought out report obviously
done by a top
scientist who was no dummy. The name on the
report is K B
Cross.
Not only can I not find a flaw or a mistake, but I
can now
extend the MIT analysis and identify a likely meteor
candidate and
answer some of their questions on the flight path.
The radar beam volume described in the 0.75-second
high-speed track is about 8 x 8 nmi high and wide (the
report talks
about a +/-5 nmi error which would allow for about a
10 x 10 nmi volume
but I am calculating from the +/-0.5 deg beamwidths
and the numbers can
always be adjusted for 10 x 10). This allows for
a maximum
descent angle of about 20 degs and a possible
variation of up to 13
degs to one side or the other from the azimuth 313
degree beam
direction, which is approximately NW. The beam
was apparently
fixed in the direction of White Sands/Holloman for the
specific purpose
of testing it out on our own missiles before being
deployed on the then
highly classified mission of tracking Soviet missile
and space
launches. This classified mission was not stated
in the MIT
report, which made it seem as if it was just an
accident that the radar
happened to be pointed towards Whites Sands/Holloman
range.
Hence we have enough data to estimate the possible
radiant
for a meteor. It is very close to the Orionid
meteor shower
radiant. Orionids are a remnant of Halley's
Comet. If the
object was heading from right to left across the radar
beam, then its
heading was roughly 300 degs (about WNW), at a descent
angle of say 20
degs, and thus a velocity of about 125,000 mph
(slightly longer path
than assuming it was traveling directly away from the
radar). It
would have traversed the radar beam beginning at about
68 nmi altitude,
about 6 nmi WNW of Holloman AFB, and dropped out of
the beam at about
60 nmi in 0.75 second, leaving an ionized train that
lasted another 27
seconds or so. That projects back to a radiant
at about 5.3 hours
Right Ascension and -13 degs Declination, or about 10
degs away from
the nearest Orionid radiant (there is a random
distribution or fuzz
factor of +/-10 degs in the radiant) for early
October. As I
mentioned above, these numbers can be pushed a little
bit further with
a more detailed error analysis of the radar beam.
Conclusion: Most likely an Orionid
meteor. I am
removing the case (merely a bare listing entry) from
my Blue Book
Unknowns Catalog
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