=================================================================================================
Formerly at 1536 Connecticut Ave. NW, Washington, 25, DC
SUBJECT: The 1948 Top Secret Estimate of the Situation
Jan 1, 2023
Greetings Fellow Researchers and UFO Enthusiasts!
Several times in the past we have discussed what we refer to as the EOTS or "Estimate of the Situation", or even the "Ghost of the Estimate". But what was the "Estimate"? Captain Edward J. Ruppelt was the first serious Air Force, Project Blue Book Director, and he was first to mention its existence in 1956. He described it this way: "In intelligence, if you have something to say about some vital problem you write a report that is known as an "Estimate of the Situation." A few days after the DC-3 was buzzed, the people at ATIC decided that the time had arrived to make an Estimate of the Situation. The situation was the UFO's; the estimate was that they were interplanetary! It was a rather thick document with a black cover and it was printed on legal sized paper. Stamped across the front were the words TOP SECRET."
I began work on the NICAP web site in Dec of 1997 and had no idea I would still be "at it" in 2023! Let's take a look at what my A-Team found and how we were able to document the actual existence and content of this Top Secret document.
Francis Ridge
Former NICAP UFO Investigator & Subcommittee Chairman
Presently the Coordinator and Archivist for the official NICAP Web Site at nicap.org/
CAP POINT
Here are some of sightings listed in this Top secret document:
Jan 16, 1947; Northsea (BBU)
RAF pilot of Mosquito pursued unidentified radar target showing efficient controlled evasive action at 22,000 ft speed equal or greater than Mosquito, five months before the Kenneth Arnold sighting. Also incidents on Jan. 17, 23, April and May also.
April 1947; Richmond, Virginia ((BBU)
Meteorologist saw a silvery disc through a theodolite while tracking a pibal weather balloon, traveling E to W at less than 15,000 ft.
June 24, 1947; Mt. Rainier, Washington
Pilot Kenneth Arnold sighting. Flying his plane noticed
source of the flashes; a string of nine very bright metallic
objects.
June 28, 1947; Lake Mead, Nevada
Pilots of F-51 fighter at 6,000 ft saw a tight formation of 5-6 white circular 3 ft objects off his right wing.
June 30, 1947; Grand Canyon, Ariz.
Pilot flying P-80 saw two gray, circular objects about 8 or
10 ft diameter, diving, which appeared to land 25 miles S of the
Grand Canyon.
July 7, 8, 1947; Muroc Army Air Field, Calif.
Series of sightings from the secret Air Force Test Center, Muroc AFB.
AAF pilot in an AT-6 saw a black disc, standing out
against the clouds, make a half-roll then a stair-step climb. 10
secs of motion picture film taken.
Aug. 15-20 (approx.), 1947; Rapid City Air Base, South Dakota
Jan. 7, 1948; Fort Knox, Ky., Sighting Investigation Activity Log
The Mantell case. Air National Guard pilot killed in crash of F-51 during UFO pursuit. New evidence.
Aug. 15-20 (approx.), 1947; Rapid City Air Base, South Dakota
Major near flight line saw 12 elliptical objects about the
span of a B-29 (140 ft) with a yellow-white luminous glow in a
tight diamond formation.
Jan. 7, 1948; Fort Knox, Ky., Sighting Investigation Activity Log
The Mantell case. Air National Guard pilot killed in crash of F-51 during UFO pursuit. New evidence.
July 24, 1948; 20 miles SW of Montgomery, Alabama
The Chiles-Whitted case. A cigar-shaped object with
lights like portholes approached head-on, accelerated, climbed
away.
Sept. 23,
1948; Los Alamos {Santa Fe?], New MexicoLast entry. Los Alamos Scientific Lab personnel saw a
sun-reflecting glint in the sky from a flat circular metallic
object high in the N sky. 1.
Here are some papers that describe our work on the EOTS documentation:
Ruppelt's manuscripts tell us which cases (Brad Sparks)
Typed transcript of letters from Fournet to CUFOS and Mr. Melissine (Fran Ridge/Rich Vitello)
Robert Todd's Letter to CUFOS/EOTS/Fournet Letter (Fournet/Todd)
Project SIGN & the EOTS (Michael Swords)
Early Top Secret Document Discovered (Project 1947)
Project SIGN Report (SECRET, 1949, in .pdf)
Air Intelligence Report 100-203-79.pdf
ENDREP